Probabilistic Events

The Probabilistic Events (確率事象) is the fourth episode of BlazBlue: Alter Memory.

Short summary
After a flashback of Noel first meeting Jin at the Military Academy, Hakumen's fate is revealed as he has been captured by Kokonoe of Sector Seven. Meanwhile, Noel reunites with her long time friend, Makoto, and they reminisce about their days in the Academy. Meanwhile, Ragna is recovering in Lost Town with help by Taokaka and Litchi Faye Ling. During the episode, Tsubaki begins her journey to Kagutsuchi, with the Sealed Armament: Izayoi in hand.

Long summary
This episode starts with flashback of first meeting of Noel and Jin at the Military Academy, where Noel was reading her poem she had wrote about cats until a gust of wind blew her poem away, and Jin manages to catch it. At first, Jin was friendly toward Noel, until he realizes she looks like his sister, Saya and then Jin started to give her the cold shoulder.

In Sector Seven, Hakumen is captured and bound with a powerful Ars Magus spell created by Kokonoe. That spell can repair itself when Hakumen tries to break free. Later Rachel has a meeting with the Takamagahara System about why she used the Tsukuyomi Unit, and if she hadn't interfere, then the world would have been reduced to ashes, Rachel refused to tell her reason. She noticed that they released Yūki Terumi from the Boundary. The Takamagahara System willing to forgive her, if she has interest coming back, but Rachel replied that she has no interest in coming back.

At the Lost Town, while Ragna still recovering in bed, the Kaka kittens eavesdropped. They wanted to play with Ragna, but they were afraid because they would get scolded again. Then Tao comes and brings him food to get his strength back. At first Ragna thinks it looks gross and weird, but as Tao forced him to eat it, it taste not bad. Meanwhile, at Kagutsuchi at night, Noel reunites with her friend, Makoto and they reminiscing the time they have with Tsubaki in Military Academy, where they studied about the Gigant: Takemikazuchi, that it can only fire once every four years, and they talk about other Nox Nyctores weapon. Noel wonders how Tsubaki was doing, and Makoto tells her that Tsubaki will arrive to Kagutsuchi soon which makes Noel happy. Makoto tells her news about Jin missing from the hospital. Nobody knows where he is and it's possible he's defected. Noel has a feeling that Jin was after Ragna. Then Makoto tells that Tsubaki transferred to the Zero Division, The Wing of Judgment, and that Tsubaki was ordered to find Jin Kisaragi and Noel to assassinate them.

Before arriving in Kagutsuchi, Tsubaki visits her household and releases the seal in order to get the Sealed Armament: Izayoi. Suddenly Tsubaki has a vision of her and Jin from a different timeline together. After Makoto departs, Noel uses Ars Magus to search for Ragna. As Noel traveled to Lost Town, she encountered Litchi along the way. At first, Litchi thought she was going to capture Ragna since she is from NOL so she summons her weapon, Mantenbō to prepare to fight her, but Noel tries to explain to her that it is just a misunderstanding and that she no interest of capturing Ragna, but to talk to him.

Meanwhile in the outskirts of Kagutsuchi at night, Jin is still searching for Ragna, until he encounters one of the Six Heroes, Jūbei, however Jin doesn't believe if he really is one of the Six Heroes, and only thinks of him as a nuisance. However, Jūbei quickly leaves him, telling him that if he really need to talk to him, he will be waiting.

Noel finally finds an injured Ragna, she is worried for him because of his scars and bruises, while Ragna was surprised to see her, because he told her to leave him alone. While they are alone, Noel putting some new bandages on Ragna since he took it off, saying he doesn't need it. Noel questioned Ragna on his connection with Jin, but Ragna refuses to tell his past to her, his enemy. After Litchi and Rachel came back, they saw Ragna bandaged like a mummy because Noel over did it.

After Relius arrived to Kagutsuchi, Hazama suggested that now, when all the "players" came together, the plan will go on. While Jin still searching for his brother, Tsubaki starts searching for Jin and Noel, and in Seven Sector, Kokonoe received Lambda -No. 11-, which currently recovering in regenerating tank.

Locations

 * 13th Hierarchical City of Kagutsuchi
 * Lost Town
 * Kagutsuchi Port
 * Church (flashback)

Weapons

 * Arcus Diabolus: Bolverk (flashback)
 * Sealed Armament: Izayoi
 * Mucro Algesco: Yukianesa
 * Mucro Somnio: Musashi
 * Mantenbō

Fights
None

Trivia

 * Ragna is seen shirtless from Episode 3 until Episode 5 while being treated his injuries by Litchi. But the small black birthmark on his chest is not seen, also the Grimoire is shown come from his shoulder down to his hand, whereas in the games, it's shown to extend from his elbow downwards only. He is also shirtless in the final episode where Kokonoe made him the mechanical arm created in Lambda's regeneration tank during the credits and narration between Rachel and Hakumen.
 * In the last part of the episode, Lambda is seen in her regeneration tank wearing a black sleeveless jumpsuit instead of wearing nothing; like she does in the game. This was probably done for censorship reasons.
 * When searching for Jin and Noel in the final moments of the episode, Tsubaki is wearing her white NOL coat instead of her white cloak and eagle mask, the official Zero Squadron uniform, that she wears in story mode of BlazBlue: Continuum Shift.
 * The preview of the next episode is actually a reference to the BlazBlue Radio series, which has Noel's seiyū Kanako Kondō frequently misreading or mispronouncing her lines. In the preview, Noel says "… Makoto Nanayaku" instead of "… Makoto Nanaya yaku" which means the seiyū of Makoto Nanaya, having said "ya" once instead of twice.

Errors

 * The Japanese written on the poem that Noel was writing was not air-brushed out, so it creates an inconsistency with what Noel was saying while writing.